Description

This analysis provides a forecast of TRB prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-05-04 18.757044 22.625323 26.910005 31.982904 37.798891 44.231999 51.858477
2025-05-11 13.241824 18.315539 24.542015 32.632297 42.743793 54.836916 70.253959
2025-05-18 9.858950 15.239691 22.401067 32.387288 45.681715 62.484034 84.998971
2025-05-25 7.389919 12.655738 20.195975 31.378304 47.081444 67.851454 96.822636
2025-06-01 5.819155 10.949102 18.794219 31.071245 49.112694 73.895944 109.617213
2025-06-08 4.441513 9.205069 16.988322 29.826471 49.529570 77.572890 119.234288
2025-06-15 3.794394 8.527333 16.692849 30.741670 53.050465 85.684255 135.295102
2025-06-22 2.981916 7.354150 15.373707 29.826334 53.636082 89.494164 145.340995
2025-06-29 2.609372 6.941709 15.286917 30.882024 57.310511 98.000408 162.532025
2025-07-06 1.968769 5.804203 13.689274 29.136066 56.275654 99.238425 168.932660
2025-07-13 1.744111 5.535172 13.694156 30.204850 59.931438 107.872180 186.814181
2025-07-20 1.538952 5.259546 13.637449 31.134032 63.382246 116.314849 204.713672
2025-07-27 1.334666 4.966848 13.574261 32.189444 67.389712 126.281535 226.132855
2025-08-03 1.125166 4.600650 13.305156 32.841998 70.788918 135.543379 247.055373
2025-08-10 0.900290 4.102819 12.638618 32.595711 72.501877 142.057550 263.833251
2025-08-17 0.683817 3.532110 11.673547 31.581486 72.657344 145.886678 276.351715
2025-08-24 0.541379 3.145568 11.079890 31.272826 74.098428 151.956154 292.763645
2025-08-31 0.397591 2.668090 10.130105 30.021529 73.550674 154.451294 303.233906
2025-09-07 0.343028 2.537785 10.119354 30.941529 77.422869 165.015077 327.796420
2025-09-14 0.255069 2.189856 9.385256 30.021391 77.417936 168.506382 340.295485
2025-09-21 0.222782 2.107281 9.450273 31.082617 81.640266 179.967858 367.061828
2025-09-28 0.151244 1.732483 8.467193 29.327483 79.669731 179.728128 373.199371
2025-10-05 0.132282 1.676055 8.555349 30.401896 83.961101 191.544210 401.187276